Softening chip demand and high inventories of consumer and mobile devices will contribute to the 2023 decline.
Next year’s 15% rise will be partly driven by the end of the semiconductor inventory correction in 2023 and strengthening demand for HPC components and memory.
“The 2023 decline in equipment investment is proving shallower and the 2024 rebound stronger than expected earlier this year,” says SEMI CEO Ajit Manocha, “the trend suggests the semiconductor industry is turning the corner on the downturn and on a path back to robust growth fuelled by healthy chip demand.”
The foundry segment is expected to lead the semiconductor expansion in 2023 spending $49 billion this year and $51.5 billion next year.
Memory spending is forecast to stage a strong comeback in 2024 with a 65% increase to $27 billion after a 46% decline in 2023.
Specifically, DRAM investments are expected to decline 19% YoY to $11 billion in 2023 but recover to $15 billion, a 40% annual jump, in 2024.
NAND spending is projected to mirror that trend, decreasing 67% to $6 billion in 2023 but surging 113% to $12.1 billion in 2024.
MPU spending is expected to remain flat in 2023 and increase 16% to $9 billion in 2024.
Taiwan is expected to retain the global lead in fab equipment spending in 2024 with $23 billion in investments, a 4% YoY increase.
Korea is projected to rank second in spending, with an estimated $22 billion in investments in 2024, a 41% jump from this year reflecting a memory sector recovery.
With export controls expected to limit China’s spending in leading-edge technologies and foreign investment, the region is forecast to place third in equipment spending worldwide in 2024 at $20 billion, a decline from 2023 levels.
Despite the constraints, Chinese foundry suppliers and IDMs are expected to continue investments in mature process nodes.
The Americas is expected to remain the fourth largest region in spending, reaching a historic high of $14 billion in investments in 2024, a 23% YoY increase.
EMEA region is expectrd to increase spending by 41.5% to $8 billion.
Fab equipment spending in Japan and Southeast Asia is expected to increase to $7 billion and $3 billion, respectively, in 2024.
