After the prior quarter’s decline, the 5G MCN market rebounded grew 20% y-o-y.
“With quarterly results widely fluctuating at this point, it is more insightful to examine the trends on a rolling 4-quarter basis. On that basis, the MCN market growth rate was down 4 percent Y/Y, and the 5G MCN market was up 5 percent Y/Y, based on rolling 4-quarter averages,” says Dell’Oro’s Dave Bolan, “the negative growth rate for the total market suggests that the economic headwinds remain in place, and Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) continue restraining their capex. We are still holding to our growth rate forecast, estimating the MCN market revenues for 2024 will finish below 2023 and 2025 will be negligibly higher than 2024.”
“As of this report, 63 MNOs have commercially deployed 5G Standalone (5G SA) eMBB networks in 35 countries. Eight new 5G SA networks have been added in 2024 to date. The 2024 5G SA network deployment count contrasts with 13 deployed in 2023 and 21 in 2022. The slowing deployment of 5G SA networks reduces the market opportunity for vendors to grow their revenues. It was just a year ago when the 5G MCN growth rate was 29 percent Y/Y for the rolling 4-quarter average versus 5 percent for 3Q 2024,” adds Bolan.
The 4G MCN and VoLTE/VoNR markets had declining growth rates Y/Y based on the rolling 4-quarter averages in 3Q 2024.
On a rolling 4-quarter average revenue basis, the MCN market vendor rankings remained unchanged in 3Q 2024, with the vendors in ranked order being Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, and ZTE.
Dell’Oro estimates the 2025 MCN market will grow by 1 percent Y/Y. While the 4G MCN market will decline, the 5G MCN market is expected to offset it with an 11 percent Y/Y growth rate. The highest growing regions will be EMEA and Asia Pacific, excluding China.
