“Tougher comparisons, excess capacity, monetization challenges, and capex fatigue negatively affect both capex levels and investment priorities, providing operators with an opportunity to calibrate their RAN budgets to better align with historical capital intensity and RAN/capex ratios,” says Dell’Oro vp Stefan Pongratz, “so the problem is not just lower capex levels. Operators are also adjusting the proportion of the capex allocated for RAN.”
Worldwide RAN revenues are tracking below expectations, down 10 to 20 percent y-o-y in the first nine months.
The top 5 RAN suppliers for the 1Q24-3Q24 period based on worldwide revenues are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
The top 5 RAN suppliers for the 1Q24-3Q24 based on worldwide revenues excluding China are Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, Samsung, and ZTE.
Huawei and Ericsson’s worldwide RAN revenue share improved in the first nine months, while Nokia, Samsung, and ZTE lost some ground over the same period.
Growth projections for 2025 are mostly unchanged. However, overall revenues have been revised downward to reflect the lower starting point.
The worldwide RAN market is expected to advance at a low single-digit rate in 2025, underpinned by growth in North America and APAC, excluding China.
The Chinese RAN market is on track to decline in 2024, and the trajectory is expected to remain negative in 2025.
The report offers an overview of the RAN industry, with tables covering manufacturers’ and market revenue for multiple RAN segments including 5G NR Sub-7 GHz, 5G NR mmWave, LTE, macro base stations and radios, small cells, Massive MIMO, Open RAN, and vRAN.
