After chaotic mismanagement of domestic China DRAM startups, aided and abetted by US sanctions, China lacks any domestically owned DRAM capacity.
Hynix is the only major supplier to have a fab in China – at Wuxi – but output from Wuxi has fallen and Hynix has chosen Korea for its next DRAM fab.
Samsung and Micron have no DRAM capacity in China and their plans for future expansion will focus on Korea and the US, respectively.
TrendForce estimates, based on the plans of these three suppliers, are that Korea’s share of global DRAM capacity will continue to rise while China’s will decline YoY, dropping from 14% to 12% by 2025.
In the case of NAND, the US has stated that restrictions on expansion mainly apply to processes with fewer than 128 layers.
Samsung’s Xi’an fab continues to focus on 128-layer processes and accounts for approximately 17% of global NAND Flash capacity; the Intel fab in Dalian, which was acquired by Hynix, accounts for 9% of global NAND capacity.
However, Samsung and Hynix are unlikely to expand their old production lines as 128-layer products will be unable to compete with more advanced ones.
The plans involving upgrading process technology and raising production capacity at manufacturing operations in China will be severely limited.
All in all, China’s share of global NAND Flash capacity is expected to drop from 31% to 18% by 2025.
TrendForce predicts the formation of two distinctive production regions: Chinese factories that primarily focus on meeting domestic demand, and factories outside China that will serve other markets.
