“With some of the larger fibre and 5G builds now in the past, the different risk profiles across the carrier spectrum become more pronounced,” said Dell’Oro vp Stefan Pongratz, “while some operators prefer a more growth-oriented approach and consider elevated capital intensity levels as essential to gain a competitive edge and be better prepared for the next technology transition, the majority of the operators believe the pie is mostly fixed and focusing on efficiency improvements is considered less risky to this group.”
Investment conditions are expected to stabilize in 2025, though it will still be a challenging year from a capex and telecom equipment revenue perspective.
The near-term investment outlook is less favorable – carrier capex is expected to decline at a 2 percent CAGR over the next 3 years.
With carrier revenues on track to advance slightly (+1 percent CAGR), capex/revenue is projected to approach 14 percent in 2027, down from 16 percent in 2024.
Wireless capital intensity is projected to approach 12 to 13 percent in 2027, down five to six percentage points since the 5G peak. declined 8 percent in 2024 (telecom equipment manufacturing revenues for the six programmes tracked at the Dell’Oro Group declined 11 percent over the same period).
