The dominant independent foundry company, TSMC, plans a 3% cut in 2024 CapEx and a 10% increase in 2025 based on the mid-point of its guidance. SMIC expects no change in CapEx in 2024 while UMC plans a 10% increase. GlobalFoundries will cut CapEx 61% in 2024 but should increase it significantly in 2025 as it begins construction on its $11.6 billion wafer fab project in Malta, New York.
The largest integrated device manufacturer (IDM), Intel, projects a 2% increase in 2024 CapEx. Texas Instruments is sticking to its plan to spend an average of $5 billion on CapEx over the next few years. STMicroelectronics and Infineon Technologies both plan CapEx cuts in 2024 after strong increases in 2023.
Our forecast of 11% growth in 2025 semiconductor CapEx may be on the conservative side. Just the plans from TSMC, Micron and SK Hynix account for two-thirds of the $19 billion CapEx increase from 2024 to 2025.
Samsung, the largest spender, will likely increase its CapEx substantially in 2025 to maintain its memory market share and increase its foundry business, which is second to TSMC. In its June 2024 forecast, SEMI projected a 17% increase in spending on 300mm fab equipment in 2025 after a 6% increase in 2024. WSTS’ June 2024 forecast called for semiconductor market growth of 16% in 2024 and 12.5% in 2025. Our upside projection is a 20% increase in 2025 CapEx.
