The expected 2024 recovery – to $100 billion – will be driven by both the front-end and back-end segments.
“Despite current headwinds, the semiconductor equipment market is set to see a strong rebound in 2024 after an adjustment in 2023 following a historic multi-year run,” says SEMI CEO Ajit Manocha, who added that projections for long-term growth remain robust.
Sales of wafer fab equipment, which includes wafer processing, fab facilities and mask/reticle equipment, are projected to decrease 18.8% to $76.4 billion in 2023 – more than the 16.8% decline predicted by SEMI in the 2022 year-end forecast.
The wafer fab equipment segment is projected to account for the bulk of the recovery to $100 billion in 2024, generating $87.8 billion in sales, a 14.8% increase.
The 2022 decline in back-end equipment segment sales is expected to continue in 2023 due to challenging macroeconomic conditions and softening semiconductor demand.
In 2023, semiconductor test equipment market sales are projected to fall 15% to $6.4 billion while assembly and packaging equipment sales are expected to drop by 20.5% to $4.6 billion.
However, the test equipment and assembly and packaging equipment segments are expected to expand by 7.9% and 16.4%, respectively, in 2024.
Equipment sales for foundry and logic applications, accounting for more than half of total wafer fab equipment receipts, are expected to drop 6% year-over-year to $50.1 billion in 2023, reflecting softer end-market conditions. Demand for leading-edge foundry and logic in 2023 is expected to remain stable, with a slight softening balanced out by a rise in spending on mature nodes. Foundry and logic investments are projected to increase 3% in 2024.
DRAM equipment sales are expected to fall 28% to $8.8 billion in 2023 due to continuing weak consumer and enterprise demand for memory and storage but rebound 31% to $11.6 billion in 2024. NAND equipment sales are projected to decrease 51% to $8.4 billion in 2023 and surge 59% to $13.3 billion
China, Taiwan and Korea are expected to remain the top three destinations for equipment spending in 2023 and 2024. While Taiwan is forecast to regain the lead in 2023, China is projected to return to the top position in 2024. Equipment spending for most regions tracked is expected to fall in 2023 before returning to growth in 2024.
The following results reflect market size by segment and application in billions of U.S. dollars:
Source: SEMI July 2023, Equipment Market Data Subscription
